News & Analysis

Prices Surge as Forecasters Reset Supply Expectations

Prices soared in the global almond market the week ending Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its forecast for California’s 2021-2022 crop year almond production by 400-million pounds. Benchmark STDS climbed 29 cents/lb on the week to $2.22/lb FAS, while NPIS increased 16 cents/lb to $2.17/lb FAS. NPX 30/32 showed the sharpest …

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An Updated Crop Forecast and Shipment Report Jolt Market

A smaller-than-expected California almond crop forecast and a report showing record June shipments provided the global almond market with its most bullish news this crop year, bolstering sellers who have been grappling for months with record low prices while simultaneously striking concern among some sellers that the market could overheat. The 2.8-billion-pound forecast from the …

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Growers are Pulling Almond Trees as Drought in California Worsens. What Does it Mean for the Market?

Even with some bud failure, the 400 acres of almond trees in Fresno County should have been profitable for years to come for Stuart Woolf. But soaring water costs and historically low almond prices make this an unusual year. Faced with the prospect of financial losses from this swath of almond production, Woolf decided to …

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How Far Along is California on New Crop Sales? An Answer is Here.

The story told repeatedly in recent weeks is buyers and sellers have been largely unable to bridge the gap separating bids and offers for new crop transactions, resulting in an impasse. On Thursday, the Almond Board of California (ABC) is scheduled to release numbers testing that story. The new crop commitment numbers, which the ABC …

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USDA’s NASS Predicts Another Year of Record Almond Production in California

A new California almond crop forecast rejected by sellers and embraced by buyers could usher in a period of low trade liquidity in the global industrial market as the two sides dig into divergent views of market fundamentals. The 2021 California Almond Forecast, released May 12 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural …

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An Almond Futures Contract in India is Nearing its One-Year Mark. Here’s How it Has Fared.

The creators of a unique almond futures contract hoped it would provide bulk almond buyers and sellers with a useful price risk management tool when they introduced it last June. But as the contract nears its one-year anniversary, it has yet to achieve the widespread use its creators envisioned. The story of the futures contract …

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California’s 2021 Almond Production Will Fall Short of Last Year’s Crop by 300-Million Pounds, a New Forecast Predicts

One of the first forecasts of California’s 2021 almond crop was smaller than many market observers expected. The widely anticipated estimate from U.S.-based Terra Nova Trading and U.K.-based GLM Trading, released on April 14, puts California’s 2021 crop at 2.8 billion pounds – 300 million pounds lower than the 3.1-billion-pound current crop.  Packers in California …

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Gary Keough on the Challenges of Forecasting California Almond Crops

The annual subjective and objective forecasts of California’s almond crop by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are important reports for the global almond market, used by market stakeholders across the world to determine selling and buying strategies and more.    Ahead of the latest reports, scheduled for release in May and July, Stratamarkets spoke by …

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Can China Reclaim Its Spot as California’s Top Almond Export Market?

The headline from the latest Almond Board of California (ABC) position report was record monthly shipments, but data showing a continued increase in exports to China could be a more significant development for the global almond market. Market observers say tariff reductions, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a gradual re-emergence in China from Covid-19 shutdowns …

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